股市如人生

最近有空看了一下这本叫《股市作手回忆录》的书,是20世纪初华尔街一名股市炒家的自传。书写的很生动,不仅不少实际经历故事,更有不少人生感悟。这个人一生股市沉浮,最难能可贵的地方就在于不把成功全归于自己的勤奋思考,也不把失败全归于运气太差。我的笔记:

看大行情比只看一支股票表现重要:人斗不过大势,随着大势走肯定有利于个人。当然不是两眼一闭随波逐流:中长期也是要在大量的思考基础上透彻分析细心规划的

不要一口吃个胖子,要在观望中循序渐进

看中长期比短期投资重要

如果对自己的选择有信心,绝不能听其他人的;不要玩别人的游戏

犯错不要紧,关键是能从错误中学到什么;没有人生来就成功或完美,只要不断尝试,总会找到合适的路的

由俭入奢易,由奢入俭难

对任何业务的了解之价值都远远不及对人的弱点的了解有意义

发家之始欠下别人的钱,一定要在情况好转后立即归还;人情债最难还,而且,因为人情债丧失的机会会让你后悔终生。

我说的太多了。

这本书是《Fortune》杂志推荐的75本必读书之一,该书和其他74本都可以在网上搜到。书目在这里

在回老家山东的那个周末,我在倒时差的早晨看完了三本Michael Crichton的书:《机身》、《猎物》和《刚果惊魂》。Crichton最为大众熟知的改编成电影的书就是斯皮尔伯格导演的《侏罗纪公园》。属于高科技惊险快餐小说。推荐前两本。

发表在 教子, 管理 | 2条评论

全球化故事

那天在里昂,想理个发再回国,转了几圈,找到了一个叫Incorruptibles的理发厅。装修一看就知道是有些年岁的一家店,只理男发。接待我的一个理发师问我有没有预约,我说没有,不过当时店里没有顾客,所以就让我来了。给我理发的小伙子看起来刚30岁的样子,说他也喜欢到处走,因为里昂的圈子很小,刚疯一疯就都传开了。跟我聊起他三周前去泰国的度假。他说他喜欢潜水,所以喜欢东南亚,当地食品好吃而且不会长胖。当地人也比较容易相处,不过他觉得泰国人不太想去旅游。他说他在一家夜总会经朋友介绍认识了一个当地妞,是前泰国女篮队员,不过29岁已经退役。那妞1米94,按他的说法非常漂亮,走在大街上绝对象Karembeau的老婆那样引人注意(那个理发师大概176)。我问那姑娘聪明不聪明,他说,这个不在我评判标准之内。他觉得那姑娘很开放,出入夜店,喜欢跟白人交朋友,不过对法国、巴黎、埃菲尔什么的好像兴趣不大。当然,他说,我也没宣誓一到法国就娶她。我说,是啊,我走了不少地方,好像是很少看见泰国人。

发表在 旅游 | 一条评论

无照驾驶

2009年我初到蒙特利尔后,因为公司找的Relocation services的服务公司咨询不清,我发现自己要等8个月才能开上公司配给我的车:按这里的规定,原先没驾照的人,不管多会开,都只能先考笔试,笔试通过了,发给学徒证书,可以在有熟练司机(拥有驾照两年以上)的陪同下开车,然后必须也只能等上8个月后才能路考,路考通过之后才能拿这里的驾照。在加拿大这冬天严酷漫长的地方,没车没自由,我非常恼火,打了无数个电话到这里的交管机关也找了无数遍他们的人,跟他们说明我原先开过两年的车,而且不再是一个十几岁的小孩子,可以随时路考证明给他们看;得到的答案都是,规定就是规定,没有例外;找他们主管也没有用。我甚至想托法国领馆的人帮忙,不过那时候刚来,关系网还小,只有见人就哭天抢地抱怨一回,加上私下暗骂这里规矩太死,没有人性。结果的情况是,2009年1月4日我到加拿大,2009年11月底我才开上公司给我的车,在此期间,我天天打车上下班,光打车花了一万多刀。

我当时常常想,要在中国这事早就办了;事实上我的确托国内的朋友在北京帮我办了一个驾驶执照。我有次跟我的加拿大房东说起这事,本指望他也许认识什么人,结果他的确想办法帮我打电话咨询,不过最后也无果,我跟他说中国这事好办,认识些有关系的人就好了;他说,在加拿大不是这种情况,一切都必须也只能按规定走。

在加拿大开了一年多车,逐渐明白了这种体制的优越性。其实交通是木桶原理的最好体现:正如木桶能盛多少水是由最短的那块木板决定的一样,交通顺畅与否,也在非常大程度上是由大家遵守交规的自觉性、互相尊重的习惯和驾驶水平决定的。我以为中国很多时候路堵,大家都不能畅快运行,是由很多人以为自己比别人重要和优越、只顾自己无理变道、开车不专心、完全无视交通标记引起的,很多时候只是一两辆车的行为,就能导致整条路的堵塞,甚至带坏所有开车的人:我不这样,别人全这样,我不吃亏吗?反过来,一开始起头的那几个人,因为别人都养成了如此的坏习惯,恐怕最后大家谁也别想走,都堵在路上听收音机。

由此也联想到整个社会的运行。在中国很多时候走走关系托托后门事儿就办了,可这种跟腐败沾些关系的人情网,其实导致大家互相不信任,极大地拖慢了整个社会的效率,甚至害了李刚药家薪之流,更导致大家象无视交规一样无视法律和规章。要想改当然不是易事,不过,从我做起,多带动身边的人,早晚有一天会有好转。

现在回想,当年没有能一到就拿到驾照,对我来说,也许是好事,如果规定不是这么死,没准儿我年少轻狂开车就出了事儿了呢。

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转一篇速读技巧的文章

HP的前CEO Fiorina曾经讲过,她在学校学到的对她的职业生涯受益最大的技巧是通读一本(可能很长的)书或一篇文章,然后以精练的语言把它概括写下来,先缩写到10页,然后两页,最后缩到1页。

Speed-Reading Techniques

I was a Bible college student when one of our chapels featured a guest speaker who taught us how to speed-read. At the time I didn’t need the skill since most collateral reading assignments in my courses were under 500 pages, but I started practicing just for the fun of it – sort of like a private parlor game. However all that changed when I wound up in graduate school at Princeton Seminary and several Profs. expected me to read several thousand pages of collateral along with the five or six textbooks. That’s when I got serious about speed reading. Here is the collection of what I practiced then, and picked up since. The first thing I had to do was toss away the reading myths I had held so long.
Reading Myths
1. Reading is linear. I had always figured reading was a linear process; you know, start up front and grind through to the very end in the exact order it was printed in. Reading is no more linear than thinking is, (or I eventually discovered, than writing; few writers start at the beginning — indeed, they usually “write the first part last.”
2. True reading is word-for-word. I started as a kid looking at individual letters. They didn’t help much. Next I started sounding out syllables. Finally, I could read whole words. Why stop with words? Well, I know one reason… I had a college professor who made us swear we had “Read every single word” of our collateral reading. Why? He didn’t make us swear we’d “read every single letter.” The answer is simple: that professor (like me) had never moved from letters, syllables, and words, to reading phrases, sentences and paragraphs. He assumed the only way to read thoroughly was by the laborious method of reading one word at a time.
3. Reading is a laborious task which takes a long time. Not at all! Reading can be both fun and fast. Indeed, speed reading is like auto racing — it is far more exciting.
4. All parts of a book are of equal value. This myth persists until you actually write your own book. Then, all at once you realize there is “filler” material , illustrations, and even sometimes whole chapters jammed into a book just because the publisher insisted. Take messages for instance. Ever hear a message and wish you could put it on fast forward over that long story illustrating a point you already understand? Well, in reading you can fast forward.
5. Reading faster will reduce retention. Sorry. It should be that way, shouldn’t it? Those who groan slowly through a book painstakingly sounding out every single word, maybe even moving their lips, should get a greater reward shouldn’t they? Sorry. In fact, speed reading techniques will increase one’s comprehension and retention.
Getting Ready to Read
So, we’re ready to read. But don’t read the book yet. There are a few steps to take first.
FIRST: ELIMINATE ALL DISTRACTIONS: Get rid of ANYthing your mind could think about besides the reading material. Is there conversation? Activity? TV? An uncomfortable seat? Music in the background? (OK OK, I know many of my readers are college students who claim they “study better” with music in the background. Go ahead and
claim it — but you are wrong. You might “like it” better, but you do not study better. ANYthing which might occupy your mind waters down your concentration — even occupying your “mind-in-background.” Fool yourself if you wish — but if you really are serious about reading faster, eliminate distractions.
SECOND: Ask: What is my purpose? Why are you reading this? And what kind of literature is it? Is it a classic or fiction work you are reading for fun? Then, why hurry through it at all? Like a leisurely meal, sit back and taste each bite — turn over the delicious phrases in your mind. Or is collateral reading for a course where you are must be familiar with the central notions? Then finding the notions is why you are reading, right? Or maybe you are reading collateral where you will be tested on the content? Or maybe collateral reading where you will be required to say, “I read every single word?” Or is this a book where you will be tested on the terms and dates therein? Or, maybe you are just reading the book searching for some new ideas for your own situation. Or you have to write a review. Or maybe you plan to teach it to others. See how different your purpose might be for each? Before you open the book, take a minute to state your purpose to yourself. It will largely determine how you read the book from then on.
THIRD: Do a 10 minute PRE-READ. Take ten minutes or less and pre-read the entire book. Go ahead and try this if you’ve never done it before. Treat a book like a jigsaw puzzle. Dump it out, then organize all the pieces first before putting it together. Read the dust cover and any cover reviews. Then look through the author blurb. Move to the Table of Contents and see if you can figure out the whole book from this page. Page through the entire book, page by page and glance through all summaries, tables, pull-out quotes, diagrams(especially), and scan through all the section titles and you go.
Chances are you’ll find the KEY CHAPTER while you are doing this. Some publishers say (off the record, of course) “A book is simply one great chapter with a dozen other filler chapters.” If this is so, find that chapter.
FOURTH: Read the KEY CHAPTER. Start using the rapid reading techniques mentioned later to read this KEY CHAPTER through. You are not obligated to wait until you have read all the chapters before this one, as if you must eat your green beans before the ice cream. The book is yours — go ahead and get the central idea before you start!
Once you’ve read the key chapter you are ready to read the rest. In order from the front to the back, or in some other order which better suits your purpose. Now for some actual reading tips tips.
III. Rapid Reading Techniques
1. Raise your speed- comfort level. How comfortable are you speeding in a car? How fast do you have to go before you feel you are “on the edge?” 70 MPH? 90? 120? How about 210 MPH, the speed the Indy car drivers can average? Get the point? Some people have learned to drive faster; their comfort level has been raised. You can
do the same thing for reading. Face it, speed-reading isn’t mostly about technique; it is about mind set. Indeed this may be the reason you can play a CD while reading — you are merely driving along at 25MPH. Can you imagine an Indy car driver playing music in the background? No. The driver focuses all his or her skills on the track. If you are out for a Sunday afternoon stroll in your book, then ignore this. But if you are serious about becoming a speed-reader, then start expecting more of yourself.
2. See the book as a mine full of ORE not GOLD. Books offer wonderful gold to the prospector. But the reader must sort through tons of ore to find and refine the gold. The speed reader changes mindsets: quits fooling around with the ore and searches for the gold. What is a book anyway? What are words? They are “carriers” of truth, thoughts, ideas, a thesis, information, terms, concepts, notions. One reads a book to get the message, not to obsess on the
words. (I’m tempted here to talk about Bible study, but we shall let it pass this time.) Switch your mindset to looking for the gold.
3. Quit Subvocalizing. Most of us learned to read by sounding out the words. The trouble is, most of us never stopped. Sure, maybe we no longer audibly sound them out, or even move our lips, but in our heads we are “reading to ourselves.” We have learned to read by Mouth-and-Ear. To become a speed reader one must discard this habit (or
at least reduce it) and adopt the eye-and-mind method. It is mostly a matter of mind set. Instead of acting like the ear (even in one inside your head) is the route to the mind, begin believing that the eye is the gate to the mind. Start drinking in books through your eyes. Let the books pass into the mind directly from the eye, skipping the mouth
and ears. Go ahead and start trying it.
4. Use your finger. For most beginning speed-readers this is a shock. They remember reading in grade school with their finger and assume it slows one down. Actually the finger is your pace car. It leads you forward at a speedy pace, and keeps you on focus and avoiding back-skipping. There are several ways to use your finger (or hand) but just try it out for starters. As you improve, buy one of the books on speed-reading and settle on the pattern which works best for you.
5. Break the Back-skip habit. Most of us read along a line of type like this one to get the interpretation of the meaning,but as we read our eyes jump back to dwell on a word we just passed. We do this without knowing it. In fact, probably the only way to discover how many times you back skip is to have someone watch you read and
count the eye-darts back. But, unless you have someone you feel pretty comfortable staring you in the face while you read, just trust me – you probably back-skip. How to stop? First confess you do it. Then start recognizing when you do it. Finally when tempted to back-skip, treat the book like a movie — that is, even if you miss something in a
movie, you don’t stop the video and replay it. You just let it flow on through, hoping you’ll make it up later.
6. Use your peripheral vision. Just like you must develop a muscle in the gym, so your mind can be trained to use the eye-gate to take in a broader amount of data. For instance, instead of reading left to right across the lines, pretend there is a line right down the middle of this page and you are following the line. Let your eye take in through peripheral vision the phrases to the right or left. Can you do it? With practice you can train your mind to read on “both sides of
the road” even though your eyes are on the center line. To practice this skill most speed readers actually draw lines down pages of a book until they have mastered the skill with an invisible line. Let your mind drink in the information on the page without looking directly at it — just like you “see” the sides of the road when driving an automobile.
7. Learn to read KEY WORDS. 40-60% of the words on a page are neither critical nor important. Indeed, if someone took white-out and hid them from your sight, you could still figure out what the paragraph was communicating. So, it stands to reason that if you could figure out which are these KEY WORDS you could scan past the other words and let your mind fill in the blank. Train your mind to find these key words and you’ll add even more speed to your reading.
8. Eliminate “Bus Stops” (Eye rests). As your eyes read down this line they stop periodically and “rest” on a word.
Children’s eyes often rest on every single word as they learn to read. Then as you grow your eyes move smoothly down the line like a lawn mower, then you stop a split second on a word, then start back up again. Most reader never get over this habit, but like a bus stopping at every corner, it slows down your progress. Try to reduce your eye
rests to 3-4 per line, maybe even less as you get better… keep the eye moving smoothly line after line, letting your mind drink in the knowledge on the line.
9. Take breaks. The research is clear. Steady reading hour after hour is less efficient than taking a five minute break every hour or less. Sit down to read 100 pages in the next hour. Set an alarm even. Then reward yourself with a cookie or sandwich when you’ve reached your goal in 60 minutes.
10. Set a time goal. Have a 300 page book to read? Decide how fast you’ll read it. If you are not a speedy reader, maybe you’ll only set the US average reading speed as your goal: one page a minute (250 words/min.). Or if you are already an above average reader, set 100 pages an hour and plunge in. If you picked 100 pages an hour, that’s 50 in a half hour, 17 per 10 minutes or 1.7 pages per minute. Keep on track… pretend like you are in an auto race… push yourself, concentrate, get yourself out there on the “racer’s edge” — the line just short of out-of-control, yet still in command. Do it; it will be exciting!
IV Retention Techniques
1. Underline, circle, make margin notes. Not highlighting the whole page like some students do! Usually you will not
mark more than two or three items per page, and many pages will have no markings. Marking pages increases recall — do you have a marked-up Bible? If you do, you can almost “see” the page in your head when recalling it. Marking helps. (Highlighting may help — your own markings, however, are probably superior).
2. Dog-ear important pages. In a 250 page book there will probably be 25 pages worth dog-earing. Turn down the page to return later. The bigger the dog-ear the more important the page. Most books have only four or five half-page-dog ears.
3. Transfer key notes to front of book. Got a great point here? The central message? The quote which essentially represents the whole book? Write it down in the front of the book. Why? Generally speaking when it comes to new information you either “Use it or lose it in 20 minutes.” When you discover it, flip the book open to the front
and scribble it down; it will cement the notion into your mind. Better yet, link it to something you already know and write that down too. Linked information can be recalled far better than isolated information.
4. When finished, re-read dog-eared pages. Just run back through and re-read the gold. Here is the essence of the book (if you made judgements right going through).
5. Now write an “abstract” in the back or front. You are finished! Go for a pizza… but not just yet. Take a few more minutes and write an “abstract” up front in your own words. When the writer submitted the proposal for this book, he or she probably actually had a single paragraph or page, outlining what this book was all about. To summarize the book, simply “reverse engineer” the book back to the author’s abstract or thesis.
6. Consider drawing a “MindMap” of the contents. If you are going to be tested on this book, get someone to teach you how to use Tony Buzan’s “Mind Map” to remember the entire book on a single page. Remember, the mind mostly recalls ideas and pictures, not words.
A Mind Map will enable you to “picture” the whole book and you’ll look like you posses a “photographic” (which you really don’t need, if you simply follow the advice in this article).
7. But if you borrowed the book, and can’t mark it, dog-ear it, or otherwise “use” this took — then use 3M stickers
instead of dog-ears, and write your comments on half-sheets of paper as you go.
Finally,
remember this: speed-reading is not some magical secret you can pick up in ten minutes and Presto! You now can read 1000 words per minute. True, you can learn to read faster; perhaps double your present speed in two weeks. But to become a life-long rapid reader (like becoming a proficient race car driver) takes time, concentration and practice. This short article can get you started, but to really become expert you’ll need to practice plenty.
To help you develop this skill further try one of the many books on rapid reading. (You only need one to start with, most all articles (like this one) books and courses basically cover similar techniques.)

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《谁说大象不能跳舞》

CEO是什么人?就是忽悠着大家,把销售和利润弄好,股价弄高,当然这一切是在自己任职的那几年内,因为离职后换了新人,多少成绩都是别人的了;快离职时,业绩再差,也要想办法敲诈下董事会,给我一笔(几百万到几亿美元不等的)分手费,这样股市看起来我是自己离职而不是公司出了大问题,以至于大家继续公司市值的谎言。

1993年IBM面临着危急时刻:销售下滑,利润下降,公司内外IBM行将就木的谣言满天飞。这个时候董事会请来了前Nabisco的CEO Lou Gerstner来领导,此人之前还做过美国运通的董事长,也在McKinsey混过。哈佛毕业。四海一家的解决之道和电子商务的概念都出自此人任期。

image

这本自传讲了郭士纳在IBM的经历以及他本人的一些观念,书不长,想做CEO、即将做CEO或者对管理和运营感兴趣的人都该读一读。

郭士纳一开始(最初的两个月)做了什么?

  • 沟通:一开始就把领导风格和自己的大方向讲明白,认识熟悉团队
  • 在跟下属聊天的时候,注意观察的是对方的思维清晰度、自信及勇气
  • 改变、与前任不同
  • 与客户在一起
  • 抓重点,从人开始,内部找不到信任的人就从外面拉

接下来(第一年)他做的事有:

  • 节减开支,卖掉所有不赚钱的业务
  • 从上到下,重新设计权力机关、运营方式和人事领导机构(他实际上把IBM由一个联邦制公司变成了一个中央集权的公司,就我一个人说了算,不服走人!)
  • 重塑品牌
  • 重新设计薪酬

书的第二部分郭士纳谈到了他重塑IBM文化的努力,他把他想要的公司文化概括为主要三个方面:

  • 赢。大家是来做生意的,不是来看的。It’s real
  • 执行。再好的战略也要执行才能出成果。手下只会做你检查的事情,不会做你期望的事情。不要相信天气预报式的期望,而要做未雨绸缪的准备。一切执行最怕的就是拖延,因此,贯彻紧迫感、讲求速度的任务很重要。执行的人不需要质疑战略。各竞争对手间的最终竞争实际上就是比赛谁执行的更快。当然人和文化在这一环又起了关键作用。需要干活的人,不需要空讲的人。
  • 团队协作。干掉所有搞政治的人。

当然,尽信书则不如无书,这老兄的书里写的是近20年前的事了,在前人的基础上有突破才是我们应该做的。

每个有良心的管理人员离职时,差不多都问自己做了什么。似乎,管理一家面临危机的企业(象93年的IBM)做出有个性的变革更容易些。那么,原来运营良好的企业,就做不出有自己风格的大举措,在历史上上留下自己的足迹吗?我一开始评价CEO的话有些刻薄,不过,IBM今天又怎么样?

书的下载谁说大象不能跳舞——IBM董事长郭士纳自传

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